Power-Law Regression: log₁₀(price) vs log₁₀(days since Jan 3 2009). The residual measures deviation from the long-run trend.
Structural Risk (Min/Max): Normalizes the residual against all-time extremes. Macro positioning signal.
Momentum Risk (Rolling Z-Score → CDF): 4-year rolling z-score mapped through Gaussian CDF. Cycle-sensitive, adapts to declining volatility.
Combined: Geometric mean √(S × M) of both. Pulls toward the lower signal — if either frame says low risk, that's more informative. Backtested across all deciles with strongly monotonic forward returns.
Live Updates: On page load, fetches current BTC price from CoinGecko free API and appends it to the historical dataset. Refresh page for latest reading.